'He might be the guy': Speculation rises Donald Trump could run again in 2024 if he loses to Joe Biden

Speculation is already rising that if President Donald Trump loses he may make a third bid for the White House.

President Donald Trump gestures to supporters after a campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020, in Goodyear, Ariz. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump gestures to supporters after a campaign rally in Goodyear, Arizona. Source: AP

While the votes in a handful of key battleground states are still being counted, speculation is already rising that Donald Trump could make another tilt at office in 2024 if he loses this election. 

Mr Trump’s former chief of staff Mick Mulvaney predicted in a recent interview that Mr Trump was a strong chance of running again if he was defeated. 

"After this election is over, who is the leading candidate for 2024? I think now folks are starting to realise that if Donald Trump loses, he might be the guy," Mr Mulvaney told the Institute of International and European Affairs. 

“I would absolutely expect the President to stay involved in politics and I would put him on a potential short list of candidates for 2024, he doesn’t like losing."
Mr Mulvaney was the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget before serving as Mr Trump's chief of staff between January 2019 and March 2020. 

While the US constitution states a person can only be president for two terms, there is no rule that those two terms have to be consecutive - although they usually are.

In fact only once before in US history has a president had a non-consecutive second term in office, or a “split term”.

Grover Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th President of the United States, serving his first term in office between 1885 and 1889, before losing his re-election bid in 1888.
The rarity of a president serving a split-term shows just how hard it is for a person to maintain their political standing after losing office for four years.

While technically possible, there would be a range of factors in Mr Trump’s way in 2024.

One would be his age. By the time of the 2024 election Mr Trump would be 78 years old, which could make him the oldest person to win the presidency. Challenger Joe Biden would be 77 if he won the 2020 contest. 

Another factor against Mr Trump is that the Republican Party may not be willing to go back to him so easily, especially after a defeat in 2020.
Mr Trump would have to compete with a host of younger up and coming Republicans for the nomination, including likely contenders from the Senate who ran against Mr Trump in 2016, such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

Other Senators such as Tom Cotton and Mike Lee have also been said to hold presidential ambitions, as has Mr Trump’s former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Other figures from Mr Trump’s first term in office, such as Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may also have eyes for the top job.


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3 min read
Published 6 November 2020 10:13am
By Jarni Blakkarly



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