Every five years, India, the world’s largest democracy, heads to the polls. It’s a mammoth task, which involves setting up polling stations even in the most remote corners of the country.
Wait, how many people?
About 900 million Indians are eligible to vote with 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (India’s lower house) being contested.
Due to the strong security presence needed at each polling centre, voting is split into seven phases, with constituencies going to the polls on different dates, starting on April 11. Four days after the final phase of voting, counting begins on May 23.
The 2019 elections are predicted to cost almost $10 billion dollars in political advertising – making it by far the most expensive election in the world.
Women with Narendra Modi masks at a rally in Gohpur, India. Source: Biju Boro/AFP/ Getty Imeages
Key issues
- National security
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has long maintained Pakistan must stop harbouring terrorists and allowing terror training camps to function within its territories.Mr Modi responded to the attacks in his trademark muscular style - launching what he called pre-emptive strikes to eliminate a training camp in the Balakot district for terrorists. Pakistan though, said they only hit an empty field.
The jingoistic rhetoric is expected to give him a boost in the polls - analysts and Indian media have referred to it as the “Balakot bump”.
- Rising sectarianism
The debate around national security and rising sectarianism are intrinsically linked - concerns about national security fuel sectarianism, and increasing sectarianism also stimulates security fears.
Critics have accused Mr Modi's government of allowing rampant Hindu nationalism to go unchecked, emboldening vigilantes and putting minorities at risk. Mr Modi’s opponents say he has ushered in a period of increased sectarianism and polarisation of religious minorities including Muslims and Christians.
Attacks by Hindu extremists who call themselves “cow protectors” are on the rise. Human Rights Watch reported 44 Muslims have been killed and 280 people injured by these groups. The Hindutva ideology also believes India is a country for Hindus and Muslims should have gone to Pakistan in 1947.
Protesters in Delhi condemn violence against Muslims and other minorities. Source: Hindustan Times
But Mr Modi's ruling party the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has maintained there are anti-nationalists within India, and they are the primary source of complaints about right-wing extremism and rising sectarianism.
- Farmers' rights
Farmer protests have taken place all over India, in the midst of what they call an agrarian crisis.
Late last year, tens of thousands marched to Delhi demanding waivers on high-interest loans, drought relief and a better system for pricing crops.
Their disenchantment with the BJP could have a strong impact - there are at least 100 million farmers in India, according to the recent census.
Those protesting have said the government has delayed paying them for their crops, and farmer suicides are rising at an alarming rate. More than 300,000 have died by suicide in the past 20 years.
Indian farmers protesting in Amritsar, demanding complete farm debt waiver. Source: AFP
More than one hundred farmers are contesting the election in Mr Modi’s constituency of Varanasi, protesting what they call mistreatment by the government.
- Unemployment
One of Mr Modi’s main promises in 2014 was to create millions of jobs and encourage economic prosperity.
But it is proving difficult to create so many jobs for India’s huge population; 12 million young adults enter the workforce every year.
The opposition, the Indian National Congress (INC), has seized on the problem of rising joblessness and says Mr Modi has broken his promises to the people.
What happened last time?
In 2014, the BJP secured a decisive win - the party won on a scale not seen for three decades and proved many analysts wrong. Most had expected a victory, but not in such a sweeping way.
No party had won an outright majority since 1984 - usually, a number of parties form coalitions as they work towards getting the numbers to form government.
But Mr Modi was able to achieve the impossible - out of the 543 seats, the BJP won 282, and factoring in coalition allies, the party controls more than 300 seats. It was not just a change in government - it was a shattering result for the INC, which has had to recover credibility ever since.
The INC had governed India for most of its post-Independence period - 49 out of 67 years - but in 2014, many Indians were infuriated by the constant stream of corruption allegations, and dwindling economic performance. The party, once seen as the default choice, limped to the end of the elections, winning just 44 parliamentary seats.
Indian Muslim brides and grooms hold placards to spread the awareness about maximum voting in Ahmedabad ahead of the election. Source: AFP
Main players
- Narendra Modi and the BJP
After millions of Indians gave Mr Modi the mandate to govern with a clear majority, the election will be a referendum on a leader who shattered political records and finally brought an end to the INC's stronghold.
Even before he was elected, some feared Mr Modi would be a divisive leader who Hindu nationalists would latch onto. There has been a lot of pressure on him to take action on cow vigilantes (right-wing mobs who attack those suspected of smuggling or slaughtering cows). Muslims, in particular, have been targeted.
Mr Modi has asked the state governments to take strong action against such behaviour, but many human rights organisations have condemned the BJP for spurring the aggressive rhetoric against beef consumption.
Mr Modi had his critics back in 2002, when there were bloody anti-Muslim riots in the western state of Gujarat. At the time, he was the chief minister of the state. The death toll was unclear, but some estimates indicate it was around 2,000 people - mostly Muslims. Many criticised Mr Modi for failing to quell anti-Muslim sentiment sooner.
Narendra Modi is expected to remain in the top job. Source: Hindustan Times
But in his time as chief minister, he developed a reputation as a decisive leader, and transitioned the state into an economic powerhouse.
Mr Modi’s rallies draw huge crowds, and one of the main reasons many Indians voted for him is still in tact - in 2014, many Indians were disgusted with the scale of corruption engulfing many other parties. It was the main blight which turned many voters away from the INC at the last election. Mr Modi’s leadership has been largely free of accusations of corruption, as he had promised.
- Rahul Gandhi and the INC
Rahul Gandhi is part of one of the most important political dynasties in modern Indian history. His great grandfather was India’s first prime minister and his mother, Indira Gandhi, is regarded as one of the most important Indian leaders of all time. His father Rajiv Gandhi was also a former Prime Minister, and his mother Sonia Gandhi was the president of the INC.
But even with the family ties, Mr Gandhi struggled to be taken seriously became the butt of social media jokes. The BJP managed to successfully paint him as entitled and clueless - contrasting that with a carefully curated image of Mr Modi as the hardworking son of a humble tea farmer.
There is a strong sentiment among many voters of having limited options; the INC was so weakened after the last election, there is not a clear opposition figure who could pose a serious challenge to Mr Modi.
Rahul Gandhi is a stronger contender in this election than the previous one. Source: NurPhoto
There are a number of parties who will try to form a strong coalition, but how successful they are at doing it will demand on how seamlessly they can blend their agendas - and who they will trust to lead them. It will be up to Mr Gandhi to prove he is capable of bringing the regional parties together.
Some BJP ministers have seized on Mr Gandhi's Italian heritage (his mother is of Italian background), calling him a "halfling" and other derogatory and racist names.
Early on in his leadership, Mr Gandhi’s critics branded him the “pappu” (simple, naive boy) of politics. It is a term usually reserved for young boys and pets - and it’s unclear who christened him. Unfortunately for Mr Gandhi, it’s one that has stuck.
He has often appeared flustered during interviews and some analysts believe he is a reluctant politician. He was at the helm of the INC when they suffered their humiliating defeat in 2014. But his political prospects may be about to change - bolstered by the strong results for the INC at recent state elections.
Weeks out from the election, Mr Gandhi is playing to the BJP’s weaknesses - one being what many analysts have identified as Mr Modi’s struggle to connect with south Indians, particularly those who do not speak Hindi. Even at the last election, when the “Modi-wave” swept over the country, it was decidedly less forceful in the south. Recently, Mr Gandhi noted: “South India feels hostility from Narendra Modi, they feel they are not being included in the decisions of this country.”
Who is likely to win?
The Indian elections are notoriously difficult to predict, but state elections usually provide some kind of indication as to how things might play out.
Late last year, 100 million voters in five states went to the polls - the BJP did not secure power in any of these state elections, but as with most things in Indian politics, it was a bit more complicated.
In the southern state of Karnataka, for example, the BJP won more seats than any other party, but fell short of achieving a majority. The INC was able to secure government, by forming a coalition.
For the BJP to win with a majority at the national elections, the party would need to win 272 seats, and it’s uncertain whether Mr Modi could achieve this feat again. If the BJP is not able to secure a majority, it will need to rely on its allies more than ever to form government.
Indian election officials check voting machines in Hyderabad. Source: AFP/Getty Images
The most likely outcome is Mr Modi will remain in the top job, with a reduced majority for the BJP, and new coalition arrangements.
How will it all work?
All Indian citizens aged 18 and above are eligible to vote, including non-residents - provided they are in their constituency on the day. Around a million polling stations are set up around the country – even in the smallest communities.
The Electoral Commission takes the task seriously and even set up a polling station deep in the Gir Forest of Junagadh. It’s home to hundreds of lions - and all the effort is done just for one voter who lives alone in the forest.
All polling stations use Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and have done so since 2004. Voters simply select the candidate they would like to vote for by pressing the appropriate button.
While there have been some claims the machines are susceptible to being hacked, Indian authorities maintain the devices are tamper-proof and have greatly reduced incidences of electoral fraud. This year, for the first time ever at a national election, voters will be able to print a verification that their vote has been recorded correctly.
A demonstration of a voting machine. Source: Hindustan Times
Will it impact Australia?
The bilateral relations between Australia and India run much deeper than just a shared love of cricket.
With both the BJP and the INC going after the votes of farmers, it is likely there will be new measures to appease their demands. In 2017, India announced new tariffs on Australian chickpeas and lentils, in an effort to boost local production.
When Mr Modi visited Australia in the early months of his leadership, he came with a clear sales pitch; that Australia should see India as a key economic ally.
Mr Modi was the first Indian prime minister to visit Australia in 28 years.
“India will be the answer to your search for new economic opportunities, your source for world-class skills at home or for a manufacturing location abroad,” he said at the time.
How that will pan out in coming years will become clearer after May, when the results from elections in India and Australia should be out.
