India replacing China for Australia? 'Not happening anytime soon'

The Australia-India virtual summit earlier this month was welcomed by experts in India and Australia. However, analysts have different takeaways from this first of its kind summit.

2020 Virtual Leaders Summit

A picture of Australian Prime Minister and Indian Prime Minister is displayed on a conference screen ahead of the 2020 Virtual Leaders Summit Source: AAP

The two nations upgraded their diplomatic relations and signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

“The CSP takes our bilateral relationship to a new level of cooperation, based on mutual understanding, trust, common interests and the shared values of democracy and the rule of law,” PM Morrison said after the summit.


Highlights:

  • India and Australia signed nine agreements and a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

  • After China, Singapore and Indonesia, India is the fourth country, Australia has signed the CSP with

  • Two-way trade with India was valued at over $30 billion in 2018-19


     

General Manager, Newland Global, Natasha Jha Bhaskar says the summit was driven by an overarching sentiment of optimism and trust.

“Personal rapport, bonhomie, opportunities, possibilities, promises, consolidation of strategic ties, love for technology, multilateral engagements, bonding by food - all driven by an overarching sentiment of optimism and trust dominated the virtual summit,” said Ms Bhaskar.

It was first of its kind summit where the officials signed several agreements.
The two countries signed nine agreements in this virtual summit and committed to collaborating on science, technology and research to support their national COVID-19 responses.

India and Australia also committed to expanding trade and investment flow to the benefit of both economies.
Economist at Monash University Dr Vinod Mishra says the online summit is a welcome step towards increasing partnership between India and Australia.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2020 Virtual Leaders Summit between Australia and India at Parliament House in Canberra, Thursday, June 4, 2020. (AAP Image/Lukas Coch) NO ARCHIVING
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2020 Virtual Leaders Summit. Source: AAP/Lukas Coch
“As a person of Indian origin living in Australia, I too would like to see greater cooperation between two countries who share common democratic values and shared visions of equality, freedom and secularism,” said Dr Mishra.

One of the most crucial topics of discussion was to working together in the Indo-Pacific region.

“Our partnership is in line with India’s increasing engagement in the Indo-Pacific region through her Indo-Pacific vision and Australia’s Indo-Pacific approach and its Pacific Step-Up for the South Pacific,” PM Morrison said.
“Our Foreign and Defence Ministers will meet in a ‘2+2’ format at least every two years to discuss strategic issues and take forward our partnership.”

Dr Mishra emphasises that China was between the lines.

He says, “The summit took place in the backdrop of border-standoff between China and India and trade and diplomatic standoff between Australia and China. While nothing was said about China in the summit, one can’t help but notice that the summit was also perhaps targeted towards sending a strategic signal to China.
While that may be a calculated step as far as international relations go, it will be unfortunate if the summit and does not lead to improved trade relations between Australia and India.
It has been pointed out by many in recent times that Australia’s trade dependence on China should be relaxed and the former should diversify its trade relations. In this regards, India has always been considered as a potential replacement.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2020 Virtual Leaders Summit between Australia and India at Parliament House in Canberra, Thursday, June 4, 2020.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2020 Virtual Leaders Summit between Australia and India. Source: AAP
Natasha Jha-Bhaskar says, “Both PMs also reiterated that speed and scope of our relations leave much to be desired, despite natural similarities, institutional frameworks and high-level exchanges!”

“Hence, the summit is also a reminder that setting goals of ambitious speed in AusIndia relations needs to be driven by timeline-based specific goals and implementation across sectors; increased sharing of information and experiences on the barriers that exist on doing business, and what it takes to get corporate Australia interested in the new India narrative?”
“Two major key words - speed and scope. We need to deliver on the scope of this relationship, with the necessary speed.”
However, Dr Mishra has his reservations about India-Australia trade relations.

“If Australia is looking for replacing its trade with China by trading with India - that’s probably not going to happen anytime soon,” says Dr Mishra.

“India is a diverse, multiparty democracy, which presents a unique set of challenges for any Australian business that wants to expand in India. Different states in India are governed by various parties, which often have different policies towards international trade and foreign investment.

“Navigating through a maze of rules, regulations and red-tape, will not be easy for an Australian business used to a single-window clearance run by the communist party in China.”
Dr Mishra is of the view that trade between India and Australia will look different than Australia’s trade with China.

“Most likely trade between Australia and India would be dominated by trade in services, rather than manufacturing and mining. While India has manufacturing aspirations (Make in India initiative by PM Modi) - I think it will be a while before India can develop a manufacturing base comparable to China.

“For the time being, perhaps the two nations should think about encouraging movement of ideas (IT and IT-enabled services) and people (higher education and tourism) than the movement of goods and minerals, across their borders,” said Dr Mishra.


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5 min read
Published 10 June 2020 3:14pm
By Vivek Kumar

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